IS A COUP POSSIBLE AGAINST PUTIN?

Why the question of a coup possibility is being discussed around the globe after 20 years of Putin being in power? The answer to this question is the desperate decision of partial mobilization taken by Putin and protests against this decision. Many Russians fled the country to avoid military service and as of now 2500 protestors are being detained, so the internal dissent against Putin has raised this question. Well, to answer the question we have to study Soviet history wherein two successful coups took place.

First, in June 1953 when Nikita Khrushchev successfully ousted Stalin’s loyalist Lavrente Beria, he was later executed in December same year. Second, in October 1964 Leonid Brezhnev swiftly ousted Nikita Khrushchev, in this case, the politburo (decision-making committee) demanded assurance that the coup had the backing of both the military and KGB (Secret Intelligence Agency of Soviet Union). Then KGB chief Vladimir Semichastny played a pivotal role, he met Nikita Khrushchev at the airport upon his return from a Black Sea vacation and informed Khrushchev that he was out of a job. Khrushchev knowing the fate of Beria did not oppose and quietly accepted it.

From the above two successful coups, we can conclude that,

1. A successful coup depends largely on timing and force i.e. moving quickly and aggressively.
2. The coup in Moscow must be backed by military and Secret agencies.
3. Loyalists often shift sides when the Kremlin (the place where the President’s office is located in Moscow) is in crisis.
4. The Kremlin coup is all about personal ambitions and backstabbing.

Now we know the history of coups in the Kremlin, let’s apply it to the current scenario. The first and second conclusions mentioned above are co-related, the person attempting the coup has to be quick and for this, he must have the support of the military and Secret agencies because military and secret agencies would provide intelligence for a coup to be successful. The third conclusion is that loyalists shift sides when the Kremlin is in crisis, reasons for this might be that they are lured to do so by offering promotions in the new regime. 

Efforts to depose Putin would require support from three key organizations- the military, the FSB (successor to KGB), and the National Guards (which is Putin’s brainchild). All these organizations are headed by Putin’s most loyalist old friends, so will they betray Putin in his difficult times, only time will tell. The fourth conclusion is also true because coups in the Kremlin do not take place due to wrong foreign policy as politicians in the Kremlin consider foreign policy a specialty area where only the top leader has the experience necessary to make decisions. Therefore Foreign policy is not the reason for a coup it is all about personal hatred toward the leader.

Moscow has not experienced any coup since the fall of the Soviet Union and most of the time since then Putin has been in power, so you can say that Putin has a good hold over Kremlin. Any coup attempt against Putin would probably be the most high-risk operation in Kremlin history. The person in the Kremlin who would attempt a coup would think a hundred times and if he feels that there is even a 1% chance of failure he won’t take that risk because failure will cost his life.