The Maldives is an archipelagic country in South Asia, situated in the Indian Ocean and officially known as the Republic of Maldives. India and the Maldives have established cordial relations across various domains, ranging from the economy to security.
In the recently held elections in the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu emerged victorious. However, it is noteworthy that his election campaign was centred around anti-India sentiments. In this blog, we will examine how Muizzu’s victory may impact the relations between India and the Maldives.
Table of Contents
History of India-Maldives relations
India and Maldives have developed strategic, economic, cultural and military relations since Maldives gained independence from British rule in 1966. India has been collaborating with Maldives in various sectors namely, Health, telecommunication, labour resources, infrastructure, fisheries, education etc.
India and Maldives officially and clearly demarcated their maritime boundaries in 1976 leaving no ambiguity as far as maritime boundary is concerned.
India and Maldives signed a trade agreement in 1981 and since then trade has increased between the two countries over the years. As of 2022, trade amounts to $501 million in India’s favour, India is the third largest trading partner of Maldives.
In 2022, India and Maldives signed an open skies agreement that would boost connectivity between the two countries. In the tourism sector also Maldives is the one of the most attractive destinations for Indians. If we look at the numbers, in 2022, 2.41 lakh Indian tourists which is 14.4 % of total tourists share, visited the Maldives.
In the last five years, India’s Neighbourhood First Policy and Maldives’ India First Policy have strengthened the relations between the two countries.
How Indian Military Saved Maldivian Government Against Coup Attempt in 1988?
In 1988, a coup d’état endeavour occurred in the Maldives, orchestrated by a faction of Maldivians led by businessman Abdullah Luthufi. This group received support from armed mercenaries associated with the People’s Liberation Organization of Tamil Eelam, a Tamil secessionist organization in Sri Lanka, to topple the Maldivian government.
The mercenaries swiftly took control of key locations in the capital, including government buildings, the airport, port, and media outlets. The Indian Armed Forces intervened, executing Operation Cactus, which effectively thwarted the coup.
Indian paratroopers promptly secured the airfield, crossed to Malé using commandeered boats, and successfully rescued President Gayoom. Within hours, they restored control of the capital to President Gayoom’s government. Some mercenaries attempted to escape to Sri Lanka on a hijacked freighter, but those who couldn’t reach the ship in time were apprehended and handed over to the Maldivian government.
The conflict resulted in the reported deaths of nineteen individuals, primarily mercenaries, with two hostages killed by the coup plotters. The Indian Navy frigates Godavari and Betwa intercepted the freighter off the Sri Lankan coast, apprehending the remaining mercenaries. The decisive intervention by the Indian military, coupled with accurate intelligence, effectively suppressed the attempted coup.
Security and Defence Cooperation
India has played a significant role in building Maldives’ defence, especially in the maritime domain and it won’t be an exaggeration to say that India was looking after Maldives’ defence single-handedly.
The defence cooperation extends to the areas of maritime domain, joint exercises, defence hardware, and infrastructure development. A comprehensive action plan was signed in 2016 to consolidate defence partnerships.
India renders training to a large number of Maldivian National Defence Forces (MDF), estimated to be 70% of their defence training requirement. In the last 10 years, India trained 1500 Maldivian personnel.
The annual Defence Cooperation Dialogue at the defence secretary level was initiated in 2016 to further consolidate defence engagement between the two countries. MNDF regularly participate in Search and Rescue, pollution control, humanitarian assistance and disaster management and other exercises organised by India.
India also established a Composite Training Centre (CTC) for MNDF, installing a Coastal Radar System (CRS) along its entire coast and providing funds to construct a new Ministry of Defence headquarters.
India and Maldives also hold annual bilateral exercises known as Ekuverin (Friends), alternatively in India and Maldives. These are enough examples to prove the all-weather security and defence cooperation between India and Maldives.
Indian Military in Maldives
The whole election campaign of Mohamed Muizzu and his party aimed at removing Indian Military from Maldives and bringing balance in trade with India, which is completely in favour of India.
India Out campaign was going on for the last three to four years to put pressure on the government of Ibrahim Solih, who had maintained friendly relations with India. But this is a myth created by opposition parties regarding Indian military presence.
The Indian military is stationed in Maldives to train MNDF, it is not there to show its dominance or in any way to undermine the sovereignty of Maldives.
The Ibrahim Solih government was compelled to say that there are no Indian military personnel in Maldives other than a maintenance and flight crew operating two Dornier aircraft for surveillance and for rescue and medical evacuations. Over the last five years, 500 medical evacuations have been carried out by Indian personnel.
As per the poll promise Muizzu officially communicated Indian government to remove Indian personnel stationed in Maldives, but Maldives cannot outright reject Indian presence in Maldives as it is the biggest beneficiary in partnership with India.
China's Influence in Maldives
Countries which are strategically located, especially if they are island nations, their domestic politics is significantly influenced by their foreign policies.
The assumption that China would outplay India in the Indian Ocean is overrated and misplaced. Newly elected President of Maldives Muizzu has made it clear, that he would not allow the military presence of any country in Maldives, including China. Even though Maldives support China’s BRI it does not mean Maldives accept the interference of China as it would be contrary to its stance on India.
Grouping like QUAD which is formulated to counter China’s aggression in Asia-Pacific has changed the geopolitical equations by leveraging India’s strategic posture in the Indian Ocean. Maldives will not cross red lines by drastically increasing military cooperation with China. Muizzu would be playing the wrong game if he use China to counter India’s influence as India is a very important member of QUAD, and having bad relations with India means upsetting other QUAD members like the USA, Australia and Japan.
Unlike China, which provides high-interest loans to Maldives under BRI, India has provided low-interest loans to Maldives to manage its budget deficit. India will continue to engage diplomatically, to show how much India values its relations with Maldives.
Maldives is trying to increase bargaining power
Maldives have learnt the art of playing external power against each other and extracting maximum benefits from their rivalry. This was apparent when Muizzu visited Turkey instead of India or China as his first foreign visit after coming into power.
Getting Maldives to visit Turkey, Erdogan is contemplating increasing its presence in the Indian Ocean and shows Turkey’s growing acceptance in the region. Last year, in its first historical visit, the Turkish foreign minister visited Sri Lanka and Maldives.
Turkey, the self-proclaimed leader of the Islamic World, would help Maldives to diversify its security partnership as Turkey is flourishing in the arms industry. India must work with like-minded countries to counter Turkey’s growing strategic influence in the region.
CONCLUSION
Maldives’ foreign policy fluctuates with changes in its domestic politics. Abdullah Yameen, the former President (2013-2018), played the China card against India, and his successor Ibrahim Solih (2018-2023) reversed the roles. Now Muizzu is exploring new options to be played against India and China.
New Delhi must not lose its grip over Maldives’ internal politics, as we do not know which direction Maldives’ foreign policy will swing.,