Globalization has made countries interdependent and interconnected just like a web of a spider. Countries cannot always resort to hard power to resolve the conflict because that may harm the interests of other countries which are dependent on each other.
Sanctions against a particular country have come out to be risk-free weapons to make that country comply with international laws. The USA used the sanctions against a country which do not toe its line.
Sanctions can be imposed by international bodies or individual countries, but do these sanctions guarantee the desired results is the topic of this blog.
Table of Contents
History of Sanctions
Sanctions are not a new concept, sanctions have been used since Greek city-states, in 432 BC Athens city-state banned trade with Megara, another Greek city-state.
During the Napoleonic War of 1803-1815, Napoleon Bonaparte imposed a trade embargo on the UK to cripple its economy.
After the end of the Second World War and the formation of the United Nations, the use of sanctions became frequent. The USA with its strong economy and taking undue advantage of dollarisation of the World has used sanctions as a weapon to cripple the economy of other countries.
Today Cuba, Russia, North Korea, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, and many other countries have sanctions imposed on them.
types of sanctions
Trade Embargo
A trade embargo, also known as an economic embargo, is a government-imposed restriction on the trade of goods and services with a specific country or countries. The purpose of a trade embargo is usually to exert economic and political pressure on the targeted country in order to achieve certain policy objectives
Financial Sanctions
Financial sanctions are measures imposed by governments or international organizations to restrict or prohibit financial transactions with specific individuals, entities, or countries. These sanctions aim to achieve foreign policy, national security, or economic objectives by limiting access to the global financial system, freezing assets, or imposing trade restrictions.
Individual Sanctions
Individual sanctions involve restricting or penalizing specific persons, often due to their involvement in activities or behaviours deemed harmful to national security or international stability. These measures can include freezing assets, travel bans, or prohibiting financial transactions, with the goal of dissuading or penalizing individuals for their actions or affiliations.
Reasons for Ineffectiveness of Sanctions
Economic Adaptation
Often sanctions get absorbed into the economy and targeted countries diversify their economic relationships. Sanctions lead to the reorientation of trade relationships.
Economic adaptation is a key reason why sanctions can be ineffective. Targeted countries, resilient and resourceful, find creative ways to cope with the pressure. It makes the targeted country strive for self-reliance and it benefits the economy in the long term.
For example – Russia and China both are on odd terms with the USA, therefore now they are cooperating to tackle the USA sanctions.
Iranian President Raisi visited Africa to expand trade relations with the continent.
International Consensus
Sanctions sometimes do not align with the geopolitical interests of the partners of the sanctioning country and therefore they do not have much interest in following the sanctions.
Sanctions need multilateral support to be effective and often it is very difficult for countries to come on the same terms.
For example, the United Nations and the USA imposed several sanctions on North Korea with the objective of regime change, but the North Korean regime has become more belligerent and better armed.
North Korea made this possible because 90% of its trade is done with Russia and China which has very little interest in following the US sanctions and therefore Kim dynasty is still in power.
Sanctions Evasion
Countries under sanctions search for ways to evade the effects of sanctions and in this process, they devise the smuggling and illicit trade networks.
Financial Manipulation is also one way to evade the sanctions. Countries under sanctions resort to illicit financial practices like money laundering, to get access to funds and resources.
Sanctioned countries also create alternatives to the World banking system, for example, when Russia was thrown out of SWIFT banking system, Russia devised its own banking system, Service Bureau of Financial Management (SPFS) to trade with its partners. In April 2023 India agreed to trade with Russia through SPFS.
China also has its own international Banking system known as Cross Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS).
Humanitarian Crisis
It is often said that sanctions are not on the government but on the people of the country. One of the purposes of sanctions is to create internal strife among people against their own government and to pressurise the government to operate according to international laws.
Financial sanctions on a particular country give rise to inflation, adding to the suffering of common citizens of that country. Suffering increases to such a high level that it becomes difficult for the people of that country to get food twice a day.
In some instances, the humanitarian toll of sanctions has shifted the focus away from their original objectives, rendering them ineffective in achieving the desired political changes.
Regime Resilience
In authoritarian regimes, the very presence of sanctions can be a blessing in disguise. Leaders can use sanctions as a scapegoat, blaming external actors for domestic problems.
Sanctions against dictators are imposed to topple the regime, but when sanctions are imposed with such intentions they have almost always failed.
Dictators have strong censorship over media they can manipulate media to their own advantage and in some instances, it is used as a veil to hide economic mismanagement and blame sanctions for economic hardship to gather popular support.
Therefore, sanctions with the aim to topple the regime do not work and 90% of US sanctions that have proved to be effective were against the democracies.
Sanctions can backfire
A Sanctioner country sometimes also has to take the brunt of its own sanctions against a country that has significant economic ties with the sanctioner.
For example, recently during the Russia-Ukraine war, western countries imposed heavy sanctions against Russia that disrupted the economic ties of Russia with Europe. In retaliation, Russia reduced or in some cases completely halted the supply of natural gas to Europe, this led to inflation in Europe and now many European countries have slid into recession.
Another example is that in 1980 Carter administration put a grain embargo on the USSR in retaliation for the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. Interestingly the USA used to supply a third of the USSR’s grain requirements. USSR very cleverly shifted to a new supplier, but farmers in the USA were left with stocks of grains, the value of farmland was reduced significantly, and the market crashed this forced the USA to revoke the sanctions, but the damage was done.
Conclusion
The ineffectiveness of sanctions is not a one-size-fits-all issue. The impact of sanctions varies depending on the specific circumstances, the adaptability and resilience of the targeted nation, and the ability of the international community to enforce and maintain the sanctions.
As international relations continue to evolve, policymakers must critically assess the utility of sanctions and consider the potential consequences, both intended and unintended, before applying them as a tool of statecraft.